Experience Stern | News & Events

Excerpt from The New Yorker -- "In one fascinating study by the business-school professors Jerker Denrell and Christina Fang, people who successfully predicted an extreme event had worse overall forecasting records than their peers. 'People who make these bold predictions tend to overestimate how likely extreme events are, so, while they may happen to hit it right once in a while, over all they're not actually good forecasters,' Fang told me."

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