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Excerpt from The Wall Street Journal -- "Mr. Gabaix and fellow researchers have developed a theory that predicts, over long periods, how many daily price drops of various magnitudes will occur over long periods. For example, their theory forecasts that a 20% daily drop in the market will occur, on average, once every 100 years, a 15% plunge once every 50 years and a 10% drop once every 13 years. Mr. Gabaix says that the theory has been found to be quite accurate when tested against U.S. stock-market history back to the early part of the last century, as well as against the stock markets of Japan and Hong Kong."

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