Israel and Iran Are Likely to Escalate.
By Nouriel Roubini
The conventional wisdom following Israel’s recent strikes on Iranian military facilities in retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel is that the risk of further escalation has been contained. Initial statements from the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader suggested that Iran may not respond further, and financial markets seemed to agree, with oil prices falling 5% immediately after the Israeli strikes (even if they rose again somewhat following new bellicose statements by some Iranian military commanders).
But this conventional wisdom is likely wrong. Israel’s assessment of the threat posed by Iran has shifted dramatically in the last few months. It is not just Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his right-wing allies’ views that have hardened; key leaders of the center and center-left opposition – such as Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid – also argue that Israel should go further than it did with its recent strikes.
Whether or not one agrees with Israel’s assessment, there is now a consensus there that the Iranian regime represents an immediate, clear, and present danger. With Iranian proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria – continuing to attack Israel, Israeli leaders have concluded that they must address the problem at its source. That could mean targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and eliminating the regime’s top military and political leaders, as Israel has already done vis-à-vis Hamas and Hezbollah. By eliminating Hezbollah’s top leadership and destroying a lot of its offensive capabilities, the Israelis have significantly eroded the deterrent leverage that Iran had over them.
Read the full Project Syndicate article.
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Nouriel Roubini is a Professor Emeritus of Economics and International Business and the Robert Stansky Research Faculty Fellow.